Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
